RAW Chemistry — Meta ads: complete engagement record

Compiled 2026-08-30 UTC / 2026-08-29 evening PDT.

Written to be picked up cold by someone with no context. Everything is here: identifiers, every

ad day to the hour, every object and its state, every decision and its reasoning, every fix, every

mistake, every tool, every open question.

Companion docs (all in repo):

ADS-PLAN.md · LEARNINGS.md · sources/competitive-research/competitor-audit-2026-08-28/ ·

output/ufo-banner-2026-08-27/RECUT-NOTES.md · docs/META-ADS-MCP.md

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PART 0 — TL;DR for someone picking this up right now

by an out-of-session MCP call — operator has not confirmed this was intentional).

(control), one pins it on screen from 0.0s (banner). This is a one-variable test.

pattern, but two things changed at once: the budget and it being the first weekend day.

They cannot be separated from history.

Do not try to read Sunday. Monday vs Thu/Fri is the clean comparison.

the budget change, and the go-forward budget.

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PART 1 — Access, identifiers, credentials

1.1 Meta

instagram_user_id is mandatory on video ads under an all-placements ad set. Without it Meta

rejects with error 1772103. Statics do not need it.

1.2 Shopify

CAD warning. The operator browses from Canada and is served converted prices by the

International market. A discount shown as −$334.28 is the −$236.85 USD discount

(rate ≈ 1.4114). Convert before diagnosing any pricing "discrepancy". Our own checks run from a

US-routed host and always return USD — which is what the campaign actually transacts, since the ad

set is geo-US only.

1.3 Other

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PART 2 — Complete object inventory

2.1 Campaigns (13 total, 1 active)

2.2 The live ad set — 120249646492400611

Name: V81 | US 18-65 broad | FB+IG only | Purchase | no AN/WA/Threads

{"geo_locations": {"countries": ["US"], "location_types": ["frequently_in","home"]},
 "age_min": 18, "age_max": 65,
 "publisher_platforms": ["facebook","instagram"],
 "facebook_positions": ["feed","video_feeds","marketplace","story","search","facebook_reels","profile_feed"],
 "instagram_positions": ["stream","story","explore","reels","profile_feed","ig_search"],
 "device_platforms": ["mobile","desktop"],
 "targeting_automation": {"advantage_audience": 1}}

Meta narrows this further on its own — effective_facebook_positions routinely drops

video_feeds, and effective_instagram_positions drops explore. That is Meta's choice, not a

failed write. Compare effective_* against requested and report the delta rather than retrying.

2.3 All 14 ads in V81

Deleted: 120249662229150611 — duplicate of the banner ad, removed Aug-27 21:28 PDT.

2.4 V82 spare campaign

Built as a standalone home for the recut, then superseded by the decision to run the banner inside

V81 for a same-ad-set comparison. Retained as a spare.

---

PART 3 — The creative

3.1 What the live ads actually are

Both live ads are the same 30.1s video: UFO-V34, a "leaked interview" concept. A hooded,

unidentified source in a dark room describes building a pheromone blend as a skin-chemistry test;

intercut with Venice Beach footage of women turning to look as a man passes. Ends on the product.

frame 767 (25.57s)**, then fades as the end card takes over. Offer therefore on screen for the

entire runtime.

Both ship native 4:5 (1080×1350) and 9:16 (1080×1920) masters — separately rendered, never

derived. adapt_to_placement is OPT_OUT so Meta performs no reformatting; supplying both natives is

mandatory, not optional.

Masters: brands/raw-chemistry/output/ufo-banner-2026-08-27/masters-{4x5,9x16}/

Uploaded video IDs: 2005163350167527 (4:5) · 2170230443928592 (9:16)

Verification: 30.100s, 30fps, faststart confirmed by atom order (ftyp moov free mdat),

−14.46 LUFS, and decoded audio PCM sha256 identical to the control — proving the edit is

video-overlay-only.

3.2 Ad copy — verbatim, identical on both ads

Primary text:

Most cologne is built to smell good for an hour and then quietly quit on you.

RAW 27™ is pheromone-infused — the formula behind 500,000+ bottles since 2016.

★★★★★ 4.8/5 · 12,400+ reviews · Free shipping · 60-day guarantee
Get 70% off — today only.

Headline: Your Cologne Quit Two Hours Ago

Description: 70% off today only. Free shipping.

CTA: SHOP_NOW · Display link: RAWCHEMISTRY.COM

Destination: https://rawchemistry.com/pages/raw-pheromone-cologne

Copy was recovered by fetching the live ad's own preview iframe and parsing its payload — not

reconstructed from documentation. Docs drift; the served ad does not.

3.3 Creative configuration lock (every creative in this account)

a JSON-encoded string: `image_touchups, text_optimizations, image_brightness_and_contrast,

image_templates, image_animation, image_uncrop, add_text_overlay, media_liquidity_animated_image,

adapt_to_placement, site_extensions, profile_card, enhance_cta, description_automation,

catalog_feed_tag, product_extensions, cv_transformation, inline_comment`

Exactly one unscoped entry is required by the API.

Traps: music is not a valid feature name and rejects the whole call. standard_enhancements

is deprecated. Validation stops at the first bad name, so the accepted 17 are expensive to

re-derive — reuse the list.

---

PART 4 — Every ad day, to the hour

4.1 Campaign daily

Aug-29 was still running at time of writing (18:35 PDT, 77% elapsed, $147.48 at ad level).

Campaign lifetime: $387.45 · 50 ATC @ $7.75 · 10 IC · 7 purchases · $536.80 · ROAS 1.39 · CAC $55.35.

4.2 Aug-27 hourly (Thu, 3 ads, $100 budget)

Delivery began ~06:00. All 3 purchases landed 08:00-11:59. Spend spread broadly.

4.3 Aug-28 hourly (Fri, 2 ads, $100 budget)

Spend spread almost flat across 24h. Only $20.20 (19% of day) by 09:00.

Control-ad ATCs: 9 of 10 landed at or after 14:00. Biggest hour 16:00.

Why so slow in the morning: Aug-27 overdelivered to $134.48 (+34%). Meta balances across a

~weekly window, so Aug-28 was throttled early to repay it.

4.4 Aug-29 hourly (Sat, 2 ads, $175 budget) — through 14:59

00:00-09:59 = $86.55 → 24 LPV, 8 ATC, 1 purchase.

10:00-14:59 = $23.34 → 1 LPV, 0 ATC, 0 purchase.

The 06:00-07:00 block took 51% of the day's early budget at the highest CPMs of the day

($305/$301 vs $121-196 later). That was not irrational: those are 09:00-11:00 Eastern, and the

morning produced every conversion. Meta optimises for predicted purchasers, not cheap impressions,

and paid a premium for the hours that convert.

Caution recorded: the 13:00-16:00 stretch looked like a dead zone and was then followed by

2 more control ATCs by 16:42. Dayparting cannot be judged intraday.

4.5 Per-ad lifetime

4.6 Per-format CPM (Aug-27, the only day all formats ran)

Video costs ~1.8× static per impression. 84% of Aug-27's impressions came from statics, which

is why that day's blended CPM was $141 — the cheapest of the three despite the highest spend.

4.7 Every funnel order (price-matched, PDT)

10 consecutive exact reconciliations between Meta-reported revenue and paid Shopify orders.

Identify funnel orders by PRICE. Shopify reports **every one of these as `firstVisit: direct,

lastVisit: direct` with no UTM, because the funnel converts through shop.app / Shop Pay, which

strips the referrer**. Non-funnel orders on the same days ($71.00, $67.50, $36.50, $34.50, $36.75)

are other products/channels.

4.8 Historical: FREE vs honest offers (90-day, pre-V81)

Honest offers cost 3.1× the CPM and returned 9.2× the revenue per dollar and **28× the

revenue per landing page view**.

---

PART 5 — Chronology: what happened, when, and why

Aug-26 and earlier — the pre-history

Eleven campaigns had run (V76-V80, Prospecting, Test, Scale) on a funnel later proven broken.

Symptoms: cost per ATC $14-114, several days with zero purchases, and a Shopify attribution report

showing "Facebook/Instagram 0" in the last 16 orders — which was later shown to be **Shop Pay

stripping the referrer**, not an absence of ad-driven sales. Everything was paused to reach one

clean test.

Aug-27

Aug-28

Aug-29

---

PART 6 — Everything paused, with reasoning and retrospective

The consequential one. Pausing both statics left the campaign with two cuts of one video.

Blended CPM went $141 → $238 → $266 and impressions fell 957 → 439 → 269. Statics were the

cheap-reach layer. This did not, however, explain the Aug-29 spend pattern — see Part 8.

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PART 7 — The funnel: every fix, with verification

Discount node IDs: 3-pack 1616747659568 · single 1616747692336. Both ACTIVE, no end date.

24 code discounts exist and do NOT stack on these automatics — verified.

Funnel state now: click → LP (PSI 99, pixel at 2.5s) → drawer (offer visible) → checkout

(discount visible, correct name, free express labelled) → Shop Pay.

---

PART 8 — The open question: Saturday vs budget

Aug-29 broke a two-day pattern. $/ATC $6.11 → $6.13 → $11.60. ROAS 1.63 → 2.10 → 0.66.

Two variables changed simultaneously:

What the data can and cannot say

Purchase count proves nothing. At the Aug-27/28 rate (2.33/day), P(observing ≤1 purchase on a

given day) = 32%. One-versus-three is unremarkable.

Cost-per-ATC is the real signal — 13 events, not 1 — and it roughly doubled.

A single ad DOES absorb budget linearly. Hour-matched, the control ad only, hours 00:00-10:59

on both days:

So budget does not inherently inflate cost. That kills the simplest explanation.

No weekend baseline exists. The account's only prior Saturday is Aug-08: $5.43 spend, 1 ATC.

Everything material changed since — creative, offer, checkout fix, pixel. Pre-Aug-27 days ran

different creative on a broken funnel ($/ATC $14-114). Nothing to compare against.

Agreed plan

also halts remaining Saturday spend. Saves ~$40 tonight + ~$85 Sunday ≈ $125.

Rationale for not spending to disambiguate: the same answer is available later for the same money,

on a weekday, with better creative. Buying it now on a ROAS-0.66 day is paying a premium for a

tidier chart.

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PART 9 — Banner vs control: where the test actually stands

Both cleared the 10-ATC gate cumulatively. The banner leads every cost metric; the control leads

purchases — but has had 3.5× the delivery, so the purchase gap partly reflects budget share.

Day by day the story flipped repeatedly:

Not resolvable while Aug-29 is confounded. Carry into the Monday read.

What the competitor evidence predicted: short ads (≤35s) place the offer at a median 0.0s,

5/5 within five seconds; GODA's longest-running live ad pins its offer and a Buy 2, Get 1 FREE

badge from frame 0 and never removes them. That predicted the banner should win. **Our own money has

not confirmed it.**

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PART 10 — Competitive intelligence (Foreplay, 2026-08-28)

Four brands, 250-ad newest-first samples, all creatives opened and measured.

10.1 Findings

headline "Secret to Attention 👉" and are ten different files at **14.88, 38.19, 39.27, 39.83,

40.75, 46.53, 46.95, 60.67, 74.88, 91.9s. Live range spans 7.99s–93.18s**.

3/5/7-day tail. Survivors from the same day run 94h+.

"testing pheromone cologne on my sisters hot friend", club footage, a screenshot of a review

captioned "The 500,000+ positive reviews weren't LYING".

wordmark, LAST CHANCE, 50% OFF, two clipart alarm clocks. No product, no model. Attached to

~600 words of first-person advertorial signed "Michelle D."

crepey skin, smoothing over a day-1→60 arc. No model, no shoot, no likeness rights.

Oil / PLEASE HELP US EMPTY OUR WAREHOUSE" + "Buy 2, Get 1 FREE"*, both pinned from 0.0s, over a

spoken apology: "I told you that was the best price you'd ever get — and then we overproduced."

Ours asserts 70% OFF TODAY ONLY with nothing behind it.

"Do Not Try This IF you enjoy being the only one making an effort" — plus hard price anchoring

($78 → $14/bottle) and review badges.

scarcity ("Mini set. Big waitlist." / "SOLD OUT 3X").

10.2 Companion pages — confirmed

Satellite pages demonstrably outrun motherships. All three flavours are available options; the

choice is the operator's.

10.3 DCO — investigated and closed

Foreplay's display_format: DCO means **any multi-asset creative, including plain placement

customization**. Proven symmetrically:

720×1280 and 720×900 at identical 30.164042s with identical audio sha256.

There is no DCO gap. We have shipped the mechanism since V76. Do not reopen without new

primary evidence.

Boards published:

http://15.204.83.60/raw-chemistry/competitor-creatives/ · /raw-chemistry/offer-timing/

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PART 11 — Everything learned

Full text in LEARNINGS.md. Complete list, grouped.

11.1 Offer and price

warning, not a win — a proposed rule to kill ads above $120 CPM would have killed every

profitable ad and protected every unprofitable one.

business from CAC $20 against $30. But breakeven CAC is still unknown without COGS.

11.2 Funnel

5.3%" comparison used a double-counted denominator — IC fired twice (drawer + Shopify).

Real Aug-24 funnel: 129 LPV → 9 buy-button clicks → 1 purchase. Direction holds, magnitude was

inflated.

hidden discounts — all fixable in an afternoon and worth more than a new creative.

interacting; parsing ev= from a query string when Meta posts URL-encoded bodies; comparing

against a non-deferred page.

profiles. No versions, run IDs or codenames.

11.3 Creative

"video beats statics" (wrong on the metric that matters: statics bought LPVs at $1.53 vs $2.91

over 90 days) and then the UFO video beat both statics in V81.

Being tested; our own money has not confirmed it.

11.4 Measurement and decision-making

banner's 29.6% CTR on 27 impressions; a "dead afternoon" that revived; a "$16.49/ATC" alarm that

was a partial-day artifact.

rate — impressions land before conversions.

from it.

is a multi-day system.

11.5 Platform mechanics

Creative mutates the ad — all 17 OPT_OUT.

WhatsApp status, Threads, Messenger. Pin FB+IG explicitly.

doc describing a UI dropdown limitation and applied as strategy.

11.6 Research method

anything that reads persistent. One badge claimed 0.0→31.209s; pixels show it gone by 6.9s.

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PART 12 — Mistakes made, and how each was caught

Recorded because the pattern repeats and recognising it early is worth more than any single finding.

**The dominant pattern: reaching for a plausible mechanism instead of checking whether the

suspected variable actually changed.** Items 13, 14, 15 and 17 are all the same error.

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PART 13 — Tools built (all in tools/, all runnable)

Skills created

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PART 14 — Blockers (all operator inputs)

At $72.97 AOV:

| contribution margin | breakeven CAC |

|---|---|

| 70% | $51.08 |

| 60% | $43.78 |

| 50% | $36.48 |

| 40% | $29.19 |

Measured CAC has run $34.76 → $150+. At 50% margin the account is roughly breakeven; at 40%

it is losing money; at 70% it has room. **This single number converts every scale decision from

opinion into arithmetic.**

launch inventory. Must be genuinely true; it is checkable by customers.

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PART 15 — Next actions, in order

resolves the banner test.

Target 5-8 distinct live ads before any further budget increase.

pain-first sharpening of the next static batch.

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PART 16 — Standing rules (do not relitigate)

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Reproduction commands

node tools/shopify-token-health.mjs                    # expect: life OFFLINE
node tools/raw-shipping-label.mjs verify               # delivery profile 132870603056
node tools/history.mjs validate                        # ledger integrity
node ~/.codex/skills/build-meta-ad-objects/scripts/verify-ad-objects.mjs < readback.json
node tools/shopify-admin.mjs '{ shop { name currencyCode } }'

Published copy: http://15.204.83.60/raw-chemistry/handoff/

Source of truth: this file, in the repo.